Rob, the absolute biggest problems with rain tires comes from actually HAVING them. That may sound silly, but when you think about it, it's rare that people make the correct choice unless the environment is very obvious.
Last weekend was a good example. I watched the weather all day; with the low clouds and lack of organized patterns rain could have happened any time (as it did during lunch). However, immediately prior to your race there was no pending implications of rain. Further, while the track was wet from the earlier rain there was no precipitation and a light wind, indicating drying conditions; I would have gone out on dry tires, and that was the right choice.
Compare that to JeffL's ITS/ITB race. Not only was the track dry, but the weather conditions had not changed one iota. The light wind was continuing and the prior group dried the line out pretty well. Again, I would have gone out on rains. However, hindsight showed me to be incorrect: just as they were gridding a light rain started, but it wan't enough to cause standing water. Unfortunately, as they began to pull out it rained hard enough to being puddling, and at that point rain tires were the proper choice. There were a few guys that took a shot with rain tires, but unless they had RADAR or divine insight it was nothing more than a lucky shot.
As a general rule, I do not install rain tires unless there's visible precipitation, standing water, and/or indications of "rooster tails" and mist from cars. Recall that the purpose of tread is to disperse standing water, and if there ain't none then you don't need tread. Additionally, the cooler the track, the more rubber stick you need; the ultimate tire for Sunday's ITA race would have been Hoosier autocross compund tires (the Dirt Stocker has a very gummy rubber, which is why it gets torn up in the dry).
If life were perfect and I had a lot of money, I'd have a set of Hoosier Rs for regular driving, a set of Hoosier As for cold and damp tracks, and a set of Hoosier Dirt Stockers for standing water. In reality I have Hoosier Rs and I'm getting a set Toyo RA-1 treadeds so they can take up space in my garage.
So, if you don't have rain tires, the decision become real easy...