My day job is analysing the impact of policy changes -
People will drop out of SCCA if their classes lose National status - The question is how many? Is that number more or less than the number who will come?
That's a simplistic view. Lacking any larger picture view, it's dangerous to even discuss such things, but....
Assume that IT is added, and a "Top 24" rule is placed on the Runoffs. (Acck, I can't believe I'm even using this as an assumption, but it proves a point)
Guess what, certain classes don't go to Kansas next year, as ITA, ITS, will certainly displace the weaker classes. What happens to the subscribers of those classes?
1-Will they retire from racing as they were only in it for the Runoffs?
2-Will they retire from racing as they are getting too old (or insert other life effect issue here)for it anyway?
3-Will the subscribers drop out and leave SCCA to race with another organization?
4-Will they continue to race, but in Regionals?
5-Will they sell their car to a new incoming driver (like my friend who bought an e Prod car) and get a car that's in a more likely to make the Runoffs class?
Answer: All of the above, and we can't entirely predict the proportions.
Sub comments, by item:
1-Perhaps not as much of a loss as we might think, as some of them are the guys who show up to the absolute minimum of races and often run the minimum number of laps needed to get to the Runoffs. Are they really what we are about?
2-Losing a subscriber a year or two early sucks, but big picture, if it's a trade for a longer term subscriber, it's positive. I know, thats cold, but we're looking at numbers here, right?
3- That sucks, but the mechanics of doing so are daunting. likely, their car won't fit in an equivalent organization. So why switch? Why not remain and switch the car? Logically, this choice won't be common, unless there are revenge motives.
4- No loss, just a shift.
5- Ditto, but possibly a new conquest.
If we get 150 drivers from NASA and lose 150 of our current members, did we gain anything? If we lose 130 of our current members, were the changes worth the net gain in 20?
It's not a pure X in and Y out analysis. And even if it were, where we lost 130, but gained 150 NASA (or whatever)guys, you have to consider the possibility that those guys might bring others down the road.
If you read the thread, you'll see the motivation started out as letting IT drivers win an OGM and now it's part of how do we fix the problems with the National Racing Program. Wow, that's a big change in what we hope to do and we've gone from personal glory to saving SCCA.
no, the thread started based on a question asked by one guy in a vacuum, completely lacking other important considerations.
It's like if you were asked, do you want to go to the movies tonight, or watch a DVD at a friends house? Well, that depends,..WHICH movie? Is the ticket $20? Is the theatre crap? Poor sound, over priced and in a bad part of town? And your friend has a new killer HD DVD with a 50" plasma setup with 7.1 surround sound?
If the movie is at a new theatre, and they have introductory pricing, and your friend has two milk crates, an old VCR and a 20" TV with the red gun out, then duh, the answers different.
It's good to be discussing issues and conditions, but we can't answer the wrong question, one that lacks 99% of the information.
(An aside- I JUST got off the phone from ordering parts for my car, from a NY state "circle track" store. I explained what i was doing, as it wasn't what they were used to, and at the end of the conversation, they guy says, "Hey, if you need anything else, call me, I'm the token roadracer here".
Conversation ensued, he's a Honda driver from NASA. He raced a Honda in H4, which is very similar to IT. As he is from NY state, I asked him "Why NASA? Not a lot of NASA racing in the NE?"
He said, because he could go and run for a National championship, and IT wasn't eligible.
"Why not a Honda in the Prod class? I asked.
"Too many old cars, and way too much work to do on the car, it's so confusing, and the rules seem to change all the time."
"What if IT went to the Runoffs?"I asked, to which he said,
"That'd be perfect!".
Just one guys view, of course.)